India’s oil marketing companies are now losing ₹530 crore every day!
And the bigger issue is what happens if crude stays above $105 per barrel. According to ICRA, Indian Oil, BPCL & HPCL are currently facing:
- ₹8/liter loss on petrol
- ₹9/liter loss on diesel
- ₹300 loss per domestic LPG cylinder
- ₹530 crore combined daily marketing losses
The Indian crude basket reached $117.4/barrel on September 21, compared with an average of $66/barrel in FY2025-26. Yet domestic petrol and diesel prices have remained unchanged for more than three months after four revisions in May.
If Brent averages $105–115/barrel for the rest of FY2026-27, ICRA estimates petrol & diesel under-recoveries could reach ₹64, 000 crore for the full year if retail prices are not increased.
At $130–140/barrel, that could rise to ₹1.9 lakh crore.
LPG is another major pressure point.
The negative LPG buffer had already reached ₹61, 940 crore by June 30, 2026. If crude remains elevated, annual LPG under-recoveries could cross ₹1 lakh crore even with a ₹90-per-cylinder increase under some price scenarios.
India imports more than 88% of its crude requirement. That makes the oil equation much bigger than the profitability of companies.
And the bigger issue is what happens if crude stays above $105 per barrel. According to ICRA, Indian Oil, BPCL & HPCL are currently facing:
- ₹8/liter loss on petrol
- ₹9/liter loss on diesel
- ₹300 loss per domestic LPG cylinder
- ₹530 crore combined daily marketing losses
The Indian crude basket reached $117.4/barrel on September 21, compared with an average of $66/barrel in FY2025-26. Yet domestic petrol and diesel prices have remained unchanged for more than three months after four revisions in May.
If Brent averages $105–115/barrel for the rest of FY2026-27, ICRA estimates petrol & diesel under-recoveries could reach ₹64, 000 crore for the full year if retail prices are not increased.
At $130–140/barrel, that could rise to ₹1.9 lakh crore.
LPG is another major pressure point.
The negative LPG buffer had already reached ₹61, 940 crore by June 30, 2026. If crude remains elevated, annual LPG under-recoveries could cross ₹1 lakh crore even with a ₹90-per-cylinder increase under some price scenarios.
India imports more than 88% of its crude requirement. That makes the oil equation much bigger than the profitability of companies.
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